November 2021 Market Snapshot
It is hard to believe but the ski season is here! The Canmore Nordic Centre has had Frozen Thunder open for a few weeks and by the end of this week Lake Louise, Sunshine and Norquay will all be open. Historically with the cool weather comes a seasonal shift in the real estate market. This year however, we seem to be bucking that trend! October set another record for real estate sales volumes in the Bow Valley; a large portion of this was the release of presales for a short term rental development on Bow Valley trail. As we move into mid-November, there are 78 residential property listings in Canmore and the surrounding hamlets. This is a 57% decline in active inventory year over year for residential properties. This isn’t to say there are not home available though. What we are experiencing is low standing inventory as the market is quickly absorbing new product as it comes to the market.
In October, there were 142 total MLS sales; 51 residential and 91 short term rentals. Residential sales were down year over year from 83 sales in October 2020; this is due to the lack of supply rather than a lack of demand. As sales dropped 37% but inventory dropped 57% year over year. In the past, when speaking with our clients considering selling, we would not always encourage them to come to market through the winter months. This year, the seasonality of the market is not as pronounced, and we expect strong demand through the winter months. If you were considering selling in the spring of 2022, now may be the time to come to market with how little competition there is for your home.
For the short-term rental use properties of tourist homes and visitor accommodation units, active inventory has started to increase over the past few months. Monthly sales are strong enough that most new inventory is being absorbed into the market. All segments of the market are well into seller’s market territory. As I’ve said before, there are sub-segments to each piece of the local real estate market, so it is important to speak with your real estate professional to understand the area you are either selling or buying in.
None of us have a crystal ball, but this is really a market of supply and demand. The low levels of active listings and strong demand will continue to have upward pressure on pricing. It will take either a significant increase in standing active inventory or a sizeable drop in demand for us to start to transition into a balanced market.