As we enter the fall market and the final quarter of 2018, there are many factors at play in the Canadian and global real estate markets. Despite some headwinds and slowing elsewhere in Canada, the market in the Bow Valley continues to perform at a consistent rate; in fact, sales year to date are at the exact same level as 2017 with 435 MLS sales.
The persistent apprehension in the overall Alberta economy has held back sales in the luxury market; while the local tourism market, retirees, and commuters has kept stability in the entry level and mid-range markets. In terms of the top end of the market, while Canmore and the Bow Valley offer exception value when compared to other resort markets, we don’t foresee any change until after the provincial / federal elections and another pipeline decision.
The Bow Valley is a worldwide destination and we welcome visitors from across the globe; however, the market is still 80% Alberta driven. Our US buyers account for 6% of sales and see the value and lifestyle that the area offers. While tourism both domestic and foreign drive the economy, it is the buyers that can make a weekend trip to town that drive our real estate market.
Q3 2018 saw a 10% increase in sales year over year with 148 sales. As expected, we saw a decline from Q2 which achieved an astounding 184 sales. Year over year, inventory is down 10% to 205 active listings. Developers have been achieving strong sales results and not many of them are reported to the MLS. With a decreasing amount of homes for sale this early into the fall market, the lack of inventory will slow our overall sales volume for Q4.
Depending on the segment of the market, values are trending in multiple directions. For instance, developable land in the Valley bottom continues to achieve new sales levels as do entry level townhomes in Cougar Creek. Some segments are seeing a plateau to the price increases experienced the past few years. While other segments will need to see prices decrease to achieve sales in the short to medium term.
Detached and Semi-Detached Q3 2018 Median Sale Price $912,500
Townhouse Q3 2018 Median Sale Price $581,110
Apartment Condominium Q3 2018 Median Sale Price $486,500
Hotel Condominium Q3 2018 Median Sale Price $468,482
Residential Land Q3 2018 Median Sale Price $787,500
As we move into Q4 and the fall / early winter market, our active listing will likely track below 200 again. Currently, there is less than four months on active inventory on the market. We are feeling the effects of changes earlier this year to mortgage rules and rising interest rates will put some pressure on the entry level segment of the market.
As both Calgary and Canmore move forward with an Olympics 2026 bid, it will be interesting to see the effect on the real estate market. Canmore’s legacy from the 1988 Olympics is much more than the Nordic Centre and has helped create what the Town is today.