Canmore & Banff 2021 Real Estate Review & 2022 Forecast
What a year for real estate in Canmore and the Bow Valley; unprecedented demand, record sales, rising prices and low standing inventory. In 2021, the total sales volume of MLS sales in Canmore and surrounding hamlets was $886,587,742; a 61% increase year over year. There was a total of 1,098 MLS sales a 41% increase year over year.
One of the most significant increases in sales this year was for short term rental properties with a tourist home or visitor accommodation use, increasing from 29% to 38% of total transactions in the market; lead largely by the release of a couple of new developments. Low standing inventory saw listing that came to market increase slightly with a 3.7% year over year increase to 1,141 listings. On the residential side, not including lots, there were more sales (661) than new listings (658). Closing off the year, there is 1.14 months of active inventory in the residential market and 0.58 months of short term rental use properties for sale placing us very much in a seller’s market.
Price increases were the norm throughout the market in 2021. With our continued low standing inventory, we expect to see continued upward pressure on prices in this coming year. Canmore, Dead Man’s Flats, Harvie Heights, Lac Des Arcs and Exshaw currently have the lowest active number of properties for sale in over 20 years; 84 total listings a 47.5% decline year over year. The five-year average for January is 164 active listings. There remains a lot of demand for properties in Canmore and 2022 could be an exceptional year for property owner that have rental properties, secondary homes or are thinking of transitioning out of the Bow Valley and want to take advantage of record high property values.
In Banff, 2021 saw an increase in sales as tourism began to return. The increase in values and volume of sales in Banff did not match that of its open market neighbour to the east. For local residents looking for value, Banff is now a potentially more affordable option than Canmore. There were 52 MLS sales in 2022 with an average sale price of $772,199 and a median sale price of $673,500.
2021 Real Estate Stats:
Detached and Semi-Detached Homes:
230 Sales + 11.65%
241 Listings – 18.86%
$1,383,151 Average Sale Price + 24.56%
$1,258,889 Median Sale Price + 27.03%
62 Average Days on Market – 15.07%
35 Median Days on Market – 14.63%
$318,124,620 Total Volume of Sales + 39.07%
Detached and semi-detached homes had incredible demand in 2021 as buyers looked for more space with both indoor and outdoor living. The lower level of inventory resulted in many properties seeing multiple offers and a significant increase in prices. With the limited number of single family lots remaining in Canmore, there will not be a significant increase in supply to this segment of the market in 2022. Mountain Tranquility in Silvertip will take a few years to develop before we see more new product in the resort. The significant increase in values that Canmore has seen over the past few years may result in a generational change as long term owners choose to capitalize on the high values and downsize or move out of the Valley.
225 Sales + 24.31%
203 Listings – 17.81%
$779,035 Average Sale Price + 7.98%
$708,000 Median Sale Price – 2.07%
39 Average Days on Market – 52.44%
19 Median Days on Market – 55.81%
$175,282,951 Total Volume of Sales + 34.23%
Over the last half of the year, there has been incredibly low levels of active townhomes for sale; with fewer than 10 active listings in November, December, and January. The median price was lower in 2021, as there were a number of new development sales in Three Sisters with small one and two bedroom townhomes at entry level pricing. In central Canmore and Spring Creek, record setting prices for townhomes is the norm. The redevelopment of Teepee Town, continued development of Stewart Creek and infill development in South Canmore will see more new product coming to market in 2022.
206 Sales + 49.28%
214 Listing + 8.08%
$621,432 Average Sale Price + 9.98%
$592,000 Median Sale Price + 11.8%
51 Average Days on Market – 34.62%
30 Median Days on Market – 37.5%
$128,015,011 Total Volume of Sales + 64.18%
With some new construction developments being completed and offered for sale, there was an increase in apartment condominiums for sale in 2021. Prices have seen upward growth in both the entry level and luxury segments of the market. With Spring Creek’s continued development, we expect to see some newer resale units coming to market in 2022. The hold on Three Sisters ASPs for Smith Creek and the Village will mean that there are not any significant apartment style developments coming to market in Three Sisters this year.
18 Sales + 157.14%
20 Listings – 13.04%
$823,181 Average Sale Price – 15.22%
$787,500 Median Sale Price – 8.96%
95 Average Days on Market – 26.36%
51 Median Days on Market – 16.39%
$14,817,250 Total Volume of Sales + 118.02%
With a new selection of Silvertip lots coming to market in Mountain Tranquility in 2022, we expect to see significantly more sales in 2022. The limited supply of development lots throughout Canmore continues to result in low sales volumes. With the small sample size and a few smaller lots selling, the average price decreased in 2021. However, when looking at individual sales of lots, prices increased this past year.
Short Term Rental – Tourist Home & Visitor Accommodation Use:
419 Sales + 91.32%
463 Listings + 38.21%
$597,489 Average Sale Price + 21.8%
$593,250 Median Sale Price + 13.23%
31 Average Days on Market – 34.04%
14 Median Days on Market – 36.36%
$250,347,910 Total Volume of Sales + 133.04%
A significant amount of new development inventory in the short term rental market has come to Canmore and Dead Man’s Flats in the past year: Raven’s Peak, Golden Ridge, Ascent, Cascade, Timberstone, Base Camp, 10 on Tenth and Sparrowhawk to name a few. The anticipated return of international and domestic travel continues to drive sales. The resale market has seen strong increase in values over the past year as buyers look for opportunities where they can use a mountain property and generate income as well.
What does 2022 have in store for the Canmore and area real estate market? We expect to see an increase in inventory in early spring. Because of the high pent-up demand, we do not expect to see this as an increased level of standing inventory but rather an increase in sales as new product comes to market. The fundamentals for the Bow Valley remain very strong when looking at the area through a national and international lens – a beautiful safe community, close to a large city and airport, good highspeed internet, good health care, ample recreational opportunities, and good value when compared to other international mountain communities.
As a community affordable housing will remain a challenge as prices continue to have upward pressure. Our limited land base along with local, national, and international demand will see more people wanting to move to the area and increasing prices. If you’re for or against the future Three Sisters development, there will hopefully be some resolution this coming year. The majority of the remaining developable land in Canmore is in Three Sisters and it will be difficult to increase the new housing supply without these lands.
With remote and hybrid work options, we will continue to see buyers who may have been considering a secondary residence here make a full time move. The record setting real estate markets across Canada and Calgary’s transition away from a one industry city and recovery will also see more buyers continuing to have interest in the Bow Valley as a home. Be it a retirement move from Toronto or a commute to Calgary.
2022 will be a year of continued redevelopment of Teepee town as the higher density development sites in South Canmore are built out. Larch and Lion’s Park will continue to see strong interest as these communities see redevelopment and conforming suites. Cougar Creek will see continued strong sales as the area undergoes a generational change. The Exshaw Mountain Gateway development has the potential to be similar to River’s Bend in Dead Man’s Flats with single family, duplex and multi-family development brining new life to the hamlet and much needed inventory to the greater Bow Valley real estate market.