Canmore Real Estate 2017 Wrap Up and 2018 Market Forecast

    Another year is in the books and it was an exceptional year for real estate in the Bow Valley. There is an astounding level of construction and development in the area; the new development in Stewart Creek at Three Sisters, continued construction in Spring Creek, new hotel construction and redevelopment along Bow Valley Trail and downtown Canmore, infill development of fourplex, duplex and custom homes throughout the Valley bottom and Banff has reached a 20 year high for development.

    The most notable trend of the year was the return of the luxury market and significant interest in homes above $2,000,000. In both 2015 and 2016 there were five sales over $2,000,000 in 2017, sales jumped 160% to 13 sales. There were a number of notable sales including one over $4,000,000 in Prospect Heights. The luxury sales were not confined to just one area of Canmore either: Silvertip three, Homesteads, Prospect Heights, South Canmore and, Three Sisters two each, and one in both Lion’s Park and Benchlands. Our team was involved with 54% of these sales representing both the vendors and purchasers.

    Overall in Canmore, transactions slipped by 2.54% on MLS sales to 574 transactions from 589 in 2016; however, there are upwards of 50 sales that were not registered in the MLS by developers. Including these sales figures, 2017 was most likely the strongest year ever for real estate sales in Canmore and area. The 274 sales represent $381,558,263 in sales for 2017 an increase of 8% for dollar volume of transactions.

    Starting into 2018 there are a mere 146 active listing on the market and only 120 residential listings including land. This is an 8% decrease in inventory from January 2017 and a 32% decrease from our August high of 232 listings. Inventory will remain the challenge going forward into 2018. There are a number of projects both in the construction phase and planning phase especially in Three Sisters that will alleviate some demand. Canmore, Banff and the Bow Valley continue to be a place where people want to both recreate and call home. The amenities that the Bow Valley offers as well as the proximity to Calgary have brought a wide range of people to the community.

    Detached & Semi-Detached Homes

    Note: This year, we change this category to include duplex properties. The sample sizes for duplexes were small and averages would change drastically. This category includes detached, semi-detached, full duplex, mobile and manufactured homes.

    Average Sale Price $1,098,549 up 17.7% yr. / yr.
    Median Sale Price $901,000 up 10.8% yr./yr.
    Total Sales 151 down 6.8% yr./yr.

    Single family and detached homes experienced and incredible demand this past year with the average sale price increasing over $150,000. Sales were down slightly primarily due to the low inventory levels and buyers being priced out of the market. There were many sellers willing to push the limits when it came to pricing on their properties. Entry level and mid-range buyers experienced the biggest pressure on both pricing and low inventory.

    Townhouse Condominiums

    Average Sale Price $656,708 up 12% yr./yr.
    Median Sale Price $605,294 up 1% yr./yr.
    Total Sales 150 down 6.4% yr./yr.

    The average price of townhomes increased due to two factors. First a sustained upward pressure on values in the entry level segment of the market. There was limited inventory of homes below $500,000 and this caused prices to increase. Secondly, there were some sales in the higher end of the market with prices increasing slightly. The mid-range market has remained fairly stable with low inventory. Elk Run continues to build a number of new projects downtown and are achieving premium pricing for their product.

    Apartment Condominiums

    Average Sale Price $464,291 up 6.7% yr./yr.
    Median Sale Price $429,500 up 9.1% yr./yr.
    Total Sales 150 up 4.2% yr./yr.

    Spring Creek Mountain Village launched a new tourist home zoned apartment building in September that achieved astounding 50% sales in the first few weeks on market. The new Creekstone building in Spring Creek is close to sold out with the first units available in the spring of 2018. Both Versant and Renaissance in Stewart Creek at Three Sisters have launched their next phase of apartment style units. As we see more and more retirees choosing Canmore as their primary residence, apartments remain a very popular choice due to their lock and leave lifestyle and comparative value to the rest of the market.

    Land

    Average Sale Price $689,862 down 2.5% yr./yr.
    Median Sale Price $602,625 down 4.6% yr./yr.
    Total Sales 12 down 40% yr./yr.

    As the saying goes, they aren’t making any more land. This is certainly ringing true in the Bow Valley as we move ever closer to the buildout of our footprint. Not only did we see sustained price increases in redevelopment parcels in South Canmore and Lion’s Park, the sale of 23 Prospect Heights set a new sales record at $2,350,000 for this 13,940 sqft riverfront lot. The annual drop in sales is attributed to two factors; River’s Bend in Deadman’s Flats is nearing completion and there has not been a further release of residential lots in Stewart Creek.

    Hotel Condominiums

    Average Sale Price $334,053  up 16% yr./yr.
    Median Sale Price $323,000 up 10.9% yr./yr.
    Total Sales 101 up 9.8%

    This was quite a year for hotel condos. Mystic Spring has experienced a 150% increase in values in the past 18 months. One of the major factors in the rise in prices are sites like VRBO and Airbnb which have allowed owners to significantly increase their profits on these homes. We don’t expect to see the sustained increase in values that the past year has brought with a couple of purpose built hotels and hotel redevelopments coming to market that will absorb some of the tourist demand.

    Outlook For 2018

    We expect 2018 to be another strong year for development and sales here in the Bow Valley. The continued low Canadian dollar will keep our tourism demand strong which will again result in movement within the market of full time residents. The improving Alberta economy will also encourage more people to consider a second home as stability returns to the rest of the province. Canmore and organizations within the area are looking to diversify our economy away from tourism and with our high-speed internet and access to the city we are see more and more people choosing the lifestyle that comes with living in the Bow Valley and commuting or tele-commuting.

    Spring Creek is preparing to launch another residential building later this year, Silvertip is moving forward with their resort centre plans and Three Sisters continues to move toward their final plans. When considering Canmore’s proximity to an international airport, a city of more than a million and access to some of the best recreation in Canada and North America we expect continued growth in the community. This coming year will see some increases in values in certain segments while others will most likely see limited growth in values. We are always happy to chat about a specific segment if you want to know more.

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